Projections vs. Rankings: What's the Difference and When to Use Them

Most fantasy football data sources will include two sets of numbers next to each player: a projection (like "185.3 fantasy points") and a ranking (like "RB6"). It may seem like the two data sets are largely interchangeable and serve the same purpose, but there is more to the picture.

Understanding the difference between these two numbers is pivotal. Projections and rankings answer two different questions, and knowing when to use which is key to building a strong roster.

In this guide we will cover:

• What are projections
• What are rankings
• When to use each
• How to use both of them together

Projections

A projection is the number of fantasy points that a player is estimated to score over a set time period (typically either a full season or the upcoming match).

Projections often take the following factors into consideration:

• Historical performance (last 1-3 seasons)
• Age and career trajectory
• Team context (position depth, offensive scheme, quarterback situation, offensive line quality)
• Target share and opportunity metrics
• Injury risk adjustments
• Strength of schedule

The output is a single number (or sometimes a range) which represents the best-guess average outcome. It is not a floor, ceiling, or any kind of guarantee.

Projection assumptions

Projections are never 100% accurate because they have certain assumptions baked in which do not always reflect reality. These assumptions include:

• Games played: Projection calculations can be straightforward for players who were full participants for the full 17-game season, but missed time can complicate this for players who were injured, suspended, etc. If or how these interruptions are accounted for can vary across data sources.
• Role consistency: Projections assume that the player maintains the same role throughout the season. A shift in positional depth can affect their outcome in either direction.
• Scoring format: Pass-catchers will have higher projections in full-PPR formats compared to standard scoring. Make sure your data source is displaying projections for your league's scoring format.
• Game flow: Projections assume a "normal" game outcome on average. Blow-outs and close-calls can skew outcomes toward running backs and pass-catchers, respectively.

Projections are a rough estimation, not guaranteed outcomes. Significantly different projections for the same player across sources is not unusual, and both ends of the range can be defensible.

Rankings

Rankings are an ordered list of players either across all positions or within positions (like WR1, WR2, etc.).

In its most basic form rankings are just projections sorted in descending order, but quality rankings are based on additional factors as well:

• Positional scarcity: In cross-position rankings, a player in a scarce position projected for less points may rank higher than a player in a deep position projected for more points.
• Reliability: Consistency from week-to-week is greatly valued in fantasy leagues, therefore a player with a reliable weekly floor may rank higher than another player who tends to go through boom/bust cycles but is projected for more points on the season.
• Injury risk: Given two players with identical projections, rankings may favor the player who is less historically injury-prone.
• Risk-adjusted value: Rookies and situation-dependent players are often adjusted down from where their raw point projection might otherwise land due to the uncertainty around their performance.
• Analyst input: Some rankings incorporate factors beyond traditional stats, such as analyst reads on coaching changes or preseason reports.

This is why you may notice the WR projected to get the 8th most points overall sitting at WR12 in rankings. There is more to the picture than just the raw point projections.

When projections rule

Projections should be your go-to tool in these scenarios:

• Comparing players across positions: Sometimes you just want to go with the player who is likely to deliver the most points, so a direct projections comparison makes sense.
• Late-round picks and waiver wire options: Rankings lean toward noise for deep/bench players, but projections still provide an honest point outcome estimate that can differentiate between them.
• Start/sit decisions: Weekly projections adjusted for each player's matchup are helpful for deciding who to start each week.
• Identifying outliers: Sometimes a player with decent projections gets demoted in rankings for reasons other than their expected point outcome. These can be good value picks when the projections pan out.

Where rankings shine

Turn to rankings in these scenarios:

• Quick draft decisions: Rankings encompass multiple factors such as scarcity/risk that projections alone do not cover.
• Cutting through uncertainty: Rookies, injury returns, and signing to a new team all come with a lot of uncertainty. Rankings attempt to factor it all in, making them a useful tool amongst the noise.
• Tie breakers: Two players with similar projections may have a gap in rankings. This is often a signal that the higher-ranked player will deliver with more consistency week-to-week.
• Start/sit decisions: Yeah, this one appears in both lists. While projections help prioritize for a high ceiling, rankings encompass a number of factors that can help you protect your floor.

No consensus

There is no single "correct" source for rankings or projections. There are many independent sources that publish these data sets, and many of them are legitimate even if they disagree significantly with one another. One reaction to this is to derive consensus rankings which averages together ranks from multiple sources.

Consensus rankings help to smooth out the noise, but they also hide the uncertainty. This is fine when there is near-universal consensus on the top players, but as you go deeper it obscures meaningful disagreement. If the ranking for a given running back ranges from RB8 on some lists to RB20 on others, there is value in knowing that strict consensus does not exist, and why.

Using them together

To make the most of both data sets, look at both and pay attention to where they diverge. Here are some scenarios to consider:

Scenario 1: Projection and ranking agree. If a player lands in the same position between rankings and projections then there is clear agreement on their value and they should be drafted accordingly in the appropriate round.

Scenario 2: Projection is higher than ranking. If a player is ranked lower than their projection suggests they should be, that means the rankings are taking some potential downside(s) into consideration. Perhaps the player is prone to injury or has a tough schedule. This can be a value grab if you think the risks are overblown.

Scenario 3: Ranking is higher than projection. The ranking analysis factored in potential upside that is not reflected in the data-driven projection. This player could be a "sleeper" candidate where something like an offensive line switch-up could help them break out from their historical norm. In this scenario, consider if the potential upside is worth the risk.

Scenario 4: Wide divergence across sources. If different sources show a wide range for where a player lands in rankings, that indicates that there is a fair amount of uncertainty about his outlook. Make a decision based on what you know and your risk appetite.

What about ADP?

We now have a clear picture of projections and rankings, but neither tells you when to draft a player. That is where ADP comes into play. Combining all three gives you the full picture:

• Projections: how many points a player is expected to score
• Rankings: where the player stacks up relative to his position
• ADP: when the player should be drafted according to market consensus

The three values combined can give you real direction. A player with a strong projection and ranking but a later ADP is a value steal. Conversely, a player with a weak projection and ranking but an early ADP is a trap to avoid.

LitFantasy puts all three data points into a single, color-coded view so you can quickly spot these patterns without shuffling between sheets or tabs. When the data points disagree, the color differences make it easy to discern at a glance.

Pitfalls to avoid

1. Treating projections as gospel: Projections are an estimate with uncertainty, not a guarantee. Plan accordingly.
2. Not taking scoring format into consideration: A pass-catcher's point projection can be significantly higher in PPR vs. standard scoring formats. Make sure your data source is using the correct setting.
3. Using full-season projections for weekly lineup decisions: Full-season projections are based on the average across games. Week-to-week matchups can vary greatly, primarily driven by the effectiveness of opposing defenses. Many sources will default to full-season projections in the preseason and then switch to week-to-week once the regular season begins. You should expect the week-to-week projection to be different for the same player from week-to-week as it adjusts to that week's opponent and conditions on the field (i.e. depth chart shifts, quarterback injury, etc.).
4. Chasing rankings hype without understanding why: If a player all of a sudden emerges into the top 10 do not just blindly chase them. Check the analysis to understand what has changed.

TL;DR

Projections tell you how many points a player is estimated to score. Rankings tell you how each player stacks up against the pack. These are two separate pieces of information, both of value.

Use projections for direct comparison of expected point outcomes and for identifying value picks. Use rankings for draft-day guidance and setting up your weekly lineup. Often the two values will diverge for one player, which is in itself a valuable piece of information.

Want more? Check our companion guides on understanding ADP, the comprehensive draft strategy framework, and common draft-day mistakes to avoid.