Fantasy Football Comprehensive Draft Strategy: VBD, Tiers, and Position Scarcity Explained

As your draft approaches you may be looking at several cheat sheets, reading articles, and talking strategy. This likely results in a huge amount of information, with some sources contradicting others. Grabbing a running back in round one is a traditional advice, while other sources may highlight strategies like "Zero RB." Some say grab that top ranked quarterback early before the position starts getting picked off, while others state that the position is not worth burning an early-round pick in single-QB leagues.

There is no right or wrong answer here. While no specific draft strategy or framework can guarantee you a playoff berth, selecting one that makes sense for your league and sticking to it can greatly increase your chances. Letting a clearly defined strategy guide your choices will generally beat just picking names off a list.

This article will explain some key ideas to help you build a well-rounded starting roster. It will cover three concepts used regularly by professional analysts:

• Value-Based Drafting (VBD)
• Tier Drafting
• Position Scarcity

By combining these three ways of looking at the data you can make more confident decisions each round, even when your opponents are sniping picks or making wild choices.

Remember the goal: draft value, not names or hype

A common pitfall is to treat your draft like a popularity contest. All your opponents have access to the same data as you, so simply drafting the highest-ranked player each round will not give you an edge. In fact, it may leave you with a very unbalanced team as the player at the top of the board is often not the position you should be prioritizing for a given round.

To build a winning team you need to be finding value on the draft board, i.e. identifying players whose expected output is higher than it should be for players still available in a given round. A mid-to-late round wide-receiver pick who finishes as WR20 is a huge win, while a first-round running back finishing as RB15 would be a disaster (even if he had a better season than that wide receiver, the real loss was that your high-value first round pick was burned on a player that did not return first-round value).

This is why the pros do not simply rank the players 1 through 200 in a single list. They instead take multiple factors into consideration including projections, position scarcity, and the actual patterns that real fantasy drafts tend to follow. This brings us to the first tool in your arsenal.

Concept 1: Value-Based Drafting (VBD)

The core concept to know is Value-Based Drafting which can be summed up as "a player is only worth as much as the next-best player at his position."

To break this down with an example let's say it is your turn in the draft and you are deciding between running back Christian McCaffrey and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. We want to compare each of these players to their position baseline, which would be the last player expected to be a starter in the league. Assuming a 12-team league with typical one QB/two RB settings this baseline would be the 24th ranked running back (or RB30-36 when factoring in flex/bench depth) and the 12th ranked quarterback. If McCaffrey is projected for 320 fantasy points and the 24th-ranked running back is at 180 points then McCaffrey would have a VBD score of 140. At the quarterback position, Mahomes may be projected for 400 points while the 12th-ranked quarterback is projected for 280, resulting in a VBD score of 120 for Mahomes. LitFantasy has VBD baked into the data view so you do not have to do this math on the fly.

If you were just pulling names of the top of the projection list you might opt for Mahomes, but what the VBD analysis shows us is that there is greater value to picking McCaffrey. To define this value advantage in plain terms, the value drop-off for running backs is more steep than it is for quarterbacks. In other words, you can afford to wait on the quarterback slot and still expect to get an effective player. Conversely, not taking the running back now comes with greater risk of having to choose among under-performing alternatives in future rounds.

Concept 2: Tier drafting

With VBD as the foundation, tier drafting is the working tool to use at the draft table. While rankings present as if each sequential player is meaningfully different from the previous/next player, that is not always the case. The 8th and 9th ranked running backs are probably near equal-value picks, while there may be meaningful difference between those ranked 12th and 13th. These naturally occurring value gaps are surfaced via tier rankings.

Tiers are groups of players with roughly equivalent value. Tier drafting frees you from having to worry about player X getting picked before your next round, because instead of focusing on getting a particular player you would instead aim to get a player from the current highest tier.

Tier drafting helps you on draft day in two ways:

1. It prevents panic picks: if your first-choice pick gets sniped one or two turns ahead of you there is no need to panic. Pivot to any other player in the same tier for a fine substitute. Despite not getting your first choice you still got a player of similar value.
2. It lets you know when to reach: if it is your pick and there is just one player left in a particular tier, that player is likely to be gone before your next pick if you do not take them now. It usually makes sense to do so, even if other players have a higher ADP. Waiting and dropping down a full tier would mean passing on a higher-value player in favor of a lower one.

You can eyeball these tiers by looking for large projected point breaks within your list, but tools like LitFantasy surface tiers right in the main data view for maximum efficiency on draft day.

Concept 3: Position scarcity

Position scarcity is the logical driver of VBD and tier drafting. It is why your draft decisions should vary based on league size and scoring settings.

The concept is simple: the fewer viable starters exist at a given position, the earlier you must draft that position.

Looking at the running back position, there are only about 24 of them who will reliably start each week and deliver fairly consistently. So in a standard 12-team league half of them will be drafted into RB1 roster slots and the rest to RB2. Beyond those first 24, the rest are hand-cuffs and long-shot lottery tickets. This is what scarcity looks like. If you make a poor decision when selecting your first couple of running backs you will be in for a tough season.

At the quarterback position we see the opposite dynamic. There are typically at least 12-15 QBs who would be effective starters, so in a standard single-QB league you can wait until mid-late rounds to grab a QB without being left out in the cold. While Mahomes and the other top QBs are great picks, it is generally not worth angling for them in early/mid rounds when there are players available with higher VBD scores at more scarce positions.

The tight end position is more nuanced. There are usually two or three top-tier picks that do significantly out-produce the rest, but the middle ground after that is composed of interchangeable players with inconsistent but more or less equal output. The takeaway here is to either spring for one of the top few early, or wait until late rather than burning a mid-round pick on an interchangeable player.

The outlook for the wide receiver position depends greatly on your league's scoring format. In full PPR (point per reception) formats the importance of the WR position is elevated, but there is also a deeper pool of players who have the potential to put up points. In standard format leagues the scarcity of the RB position generally takes precedence in the earliest rounds, but let VBD scores be your guide.

Using the concepts described here, a solid draft approach in a standard 12-team league would be: First four rounds at minimum should be some combination of RB and WR players, then consider an elite TE if the value is there. Quarterback and defense should be deferred until the last third of the draft, where the kicker should be delayed until the final round as performance from this position is generally random from week-to-week.

Pre-draft checklist

Reviewing these concepts end-to-end in your head for each draft pick may not be practical. Instead you could focus on a concise checklist that encompasses the main principles:

1. Check tier levels for relevant positions: Which tiers are likely to be wiped out before your next pick?
2. Consider positional scarcity: Which position can you not afford to delay?
3. Assess VBD: Which available player gives you the biggest edge over who you could get later at that position?
4. Make a data-driven pick: Don't just pick a player you like, let the data steer you to a value-based decision.

This framework is universal, and any of the special strategies you may have read about are just variations. For example, "Zero RB" is a common adaptation for PPR leagues which bets that wide receiver scarcity outweighs running back scarcity for this scoring format. "Robust RB" focuses on running back scarcity and doubles-down on that position. Both can be effective, as they are following a framework rather than name-chasing.

Next steps

The framework is only as good as your underlying data. On draft day you will need three things:

1. Current consensus rankings with tiers
2. Up-to-date ADP data
3. Projections tuned for your league's scoring format.

This is what LitFantasy aims to provide. All of these data points and more are presented in a single color-coded, sortable view so you do not need to juggle multiple sheets or browser tabs. You can also track which players are selected by yourself and your opponents to provide an accurate picture of which players are still available. For more clarity, see our companion guides on understanding ADP, projections vs. rankings, and common draft-day mistakes.

Draft day is full of high-stakes chaos. This framework can help you stay grounded and make level-headed decisions when the picks before you would otherwise have you scrambling. A thorough understanding of the principles outlined here just might give you the edge needed to cut through the chaos and bring home the championship.