Common Draft Day Mistakes to Avoid

No matter how much you prepare for draft day it is still far too easy to make season-jeopardizing mistakes early on. No amount of research or cheat-sheets can prepare you for the seemingly irrational picks made by some of your leaguemates, the pressure of the clock, and the temptation to fall to your own biases.

The good news is that there are common mistakes that tend to be repeated, and being familiar with them will help you remember to avoid them.

Mistake 1: Not paying attention to scoring format

Point outcomes are significantly different between PPR (points per reception) and standard leagues, but it is important to know which players benefit from each format and why. In PPR leagues, heavy-volume wide receivers and pass-catching running backs are much more valuable. In standard scoring their value over short-yardage backs and touchdown-dependent players is reduced or eliminated.

Drafting for the wrong format can leave you with a team that looks good on paper but does not perform well in your league.

How to avoid it: Know your scoring format! Make sure all the data sources you use are correctly matching it too.

Mistake 2: Chasing last year's stats

The best performance indicator for this year is this year's opportunity, not last year's stats. The time between seasons can bring changes in teams, teammates, coaches, formations, depth charts etc. These changes can have a huge effect on a player's output, in either direction.

Chasing last year's numbers can feel safe because we know the player has delivered before, but they are also often overvalued in ADP for this same reason.

How to avoid it: Trust the projections, they have current context baked in beyond just the previous year's performance. When you see a player's projection diverge significantly from the prior year's performance the real insight is looking at the "why" behind that change.

Mistake 3: Reaching for need

You're in the middle-late draft rounds and you realize the top few tight ends have already been snapped up. You panic and take the next best available TE two rounds before his ADP.

This is called reaching for need and it is not a smart value-based decision. The player you received is worth less than what you "spent" on him, and there were likely better players available, albeit not a TE.

The opposite move can also be detrimental: reaching for a great value pick that presents itself but leaves you with a big gap in your roster (i.e. it's the fifth round and you still have no wide receivers).

How to avoid it: Plan your draft strategy framework ahead of time and stick to it. Your roster gaps will likely fill out naturally as the draft proceeds, and you are better off filling them in the rounds where the choices are not upside down in value.

Mistake 4: Drafting other teams' running back handcuff

A handcuff is the backup for the starting running-back, and picking up your own starter's handcuff can be a good insurance policy if you do not overpay. But drafting someone else's handcuff is usually not worthwhile in the middle rounds.

Sure, they will become valuable if the starter misses time, but the pick spent sniping someone else's handcuff could probably have been spent on a higher value pick that returns immediate value.

How to avoid it: Only take the handcuffs for your own high-value running backs, preferably in later rounds. Make value-based choices rather than placing bets on other teams' players getting injured.

Mistake 5: Picking your favorite players

This is the most common pitfall among beginners. Taking your favorite team's quarterback in the second round or a hype rookie in the fifth might seem reasonable because they do well and you enjoy watching them, but that doesn't make it the right time to pick them up. They might be fine adds as round-appropriate picks but taking them way before ADP is almost guaranteed to not pay off.

How to avoid it: Stick to your framework and draft players at the round-appropriate value. If that happens to be your favorite player then great, but don't skip over the right pick to reach for him.

Mistake 6: Not paying attention (or paying too much attention) to bye weeks

Bye weeks should be taken into consideration, but new drafters often put too much weight on it. Generally, you should not pass up on a better player just because he has the same bye week as one of your starters. On the other hand, if you already have 2-3 starters sharing a bye week then it is time to start taking that into consideration in future rounds.

How to avoid it: Make value-based draft decision in the early to middle rounds without consideration to bye week overlap. As you begin to round out your bench in later rounds it is then worth taking that factor into consideration. It can also serve as a useful tie-breaking factor when choosing between otherwise similar players.

Mistake 7: Drafting defense or kickers too early

The two most unpredictable positions in fantasy football are defenses and kickers. There is not much correlation in their performance from one year to the next, and the top-projected picks on draft day rarely end up as the highest scorers. There is also not usually a huge difference between the top finishers and the middle of the pack.

For these reasons, you should consider putting these picks off until the final two rounds of your draft. Don't waste an earlier round on a chance pick like this when you could instead be hunting for real value in other positions.

How to avoid it: Wait until the second-to-last round to pick a defense and the final round for kicker. If others start drafting these positions earlier just stick to your plan. They are probably doing you a favor by leaving higher value players on the board while they opt instead for a lottery ticket.

Mistake 8: Post-pick regret

As the clock ticks down, you make a snap decision out of necessity and then immediately regret your choice. Perhaps someone else in the league scoffs or makes a snide remark. This can trigger an emotional response which then affects your next decision, causing you to reach for hype rather than a data-driven value pick.

How to avoid it: Treat each pick as an independent choice. Stick to the framework and make a value-based decision. Evaluate position scarcity, tiers, and VBD covered in the comprehensive draft strategy guide to pick the highest-value player. Your previous pick should not affect this analysis.

Mistake 9: Lazy drafting

You've made the effort to show up to the draft rather than rely on auto-draft, so don't just do the auto-draft equivalent of taking whichever player is left at the top of your cheat sheet. Doing so would be letting the fate of your season rest on dumb luck.

Just taking the name at the top of your list does not account for the dynamic circumstances of your league's specific draft progress. Has the run on quarterbacks started? Is it mid-draft and no one has taken a tight end yet? These are the types of things you should consider that your cheat sheet does not.

How to avoid it: Track player availability in real-time with a tool that also shows tier rankings and value scores. LitFantasy is one tool that offers this functionality in a single color-coded view for maximum efficiency.

Mistake 10: Not tracking who's been picked

It is easy to lose track of which players are still available as you consider your own next move between picks. This can lead to wasted time if you queue up a player you think it available only to find out he is already drafted as your remaining pick time ticks away.

You also need to be paying attention when the run on quarterbacks or tight ends begins. You may have an idea of when you would like to draft these positions, but you may need to adapt if your leaguemates start the rush earlier.

How to avoid it: Track drafted players in real-time. Digital tools with search functionality make this especially easy. LitFantasy provides this functionality alongside a data-rich view that puts all the information on projections, rank, and value right at your finger tips.

Bonus tip: Prepare, don't overthink

New drafters will often spend a lot of time researching individual players and identifying potential picks. This is not the best approach, since everybody has access to the same data and will be gunning for many of the same players.

Experienced drafters take a different approach. They may have their eye on a couple of rookies or deep-sleepers for late-round picks, but they do not expect their favorite players to necessarily be available when it is time for their pick.

Draft readiness checklists:

Before the draft:

Confirm your league's scoring and roster settings
Identify data sources and set them to your scoring format
Have all your data (tiers, projections etc.) in a single view
Know which pick you are in the draft order and have a rough plan for the first few rounds
Set hard rules: no defense before the second-to-last round, no kicker before the final round

During the draft:

Review the tier details for your target position before each pick
Watch for that start of QB/TE runs and adjust accordingly
Remain calm and avoid panic-picks
Keep track of all picks so you know who is available

After the draft:

Review your roster for any gaps/holes
Identify one or two potential waiver-wire picks for week 1
Set your lineup for week 1

LFG

We all know the guy who thinks he knows everything about football but then never seems to make the fantasy playoffs. Don't be that guy (or gal). Study the Fantasy Football Comprehensive Draft Strategy to learn how to make disciplined, data-driven decisions on draft day. You cannot predict every move your opponents will make but you can be maximally prepared to make a smart pick under any circumstance. So get ready, learn the framework, and do your job!

In case you missed them, brush up your knowledge with a couple of other foundational articles: